WHITBY FREE PRESS, WEDNZSDAY, NOVEMBER 2,1988, PAE '7 PAGE SEVEN PICKING A WINNER In the history of this country, there has never been an election which bas been so heavily polled as the cuIrent federal one. The polls show that we're as deeply divided and confused. As an electorate we are incredibly volatile. Only three months ago in July the Liberals were leading the polls; then they dropped to third and ...has one thirty-second finger-wagging TV clip caused a resurgence? Polls should, simply, measure public opinion, but, are used, instead, to manipulate it. Everybody wants to be ori the winning team and polls create the perception of who will win. The media, especially television, are the chief culprits. By its very nature, television is not an analytical medium. Everything is packaged into two or three minute commentaries and depth is not achievable in that foat. Even the so-called analysis programs such-as the Journal on CBC are looking for the quick easy quotes - Barbara Frum's interviews are rarely more than a few minutes long. In this environment, it is far easier to say that "with 42%, the Conservatives are headed for another majority govern- ment" than it is to say that if everybody keeps the opinion they hold today for the next several weeks, then, yes indeed, the Conservatives would form a majority government. The strategy of all politicians is to win, and timing is all important. Since Mulroney controlled the call of the election, he had the advantage. He watched the Liberals drop from first place down to third while he was doling out the goodies to boster his own party's support. The election was called when the Tories were firmly in top spot. The media, as if on their payroll, declared a majority government before the ink was dry. He couldn't have played it better. But another thing that the Conservatives knew from their polling - and this has only leaked out during the cam- paign - is that the more people know about free trade, the less they like it. Hence they designed a general, reassuring peek-a-boo campaign with emphasis on "managing change" and vague declarations of continuing prosperity. The polls also indicate that people know little about free trade and feel they need more information. And so the Tories are in a dilemma. If they don't provide more information and discuss the impact of the deal in specific terms, they lose votes. And if they discuss it candidly, they also lose votes because they can't play both sides of the fence. They can't talk about lower consumer prices without admitting that it will be imports that will drive those prices down and that means fewer jobs and lower wages in Canada. They can't talk about energy sharing without admitting that all those subsidized energy megaprojects which are winning the Tories votes in the West and Newfoundland will subsidize American gasoline prices at the Canadian taxpayer's expense. But the Conservatives are not the only ones to have read and misread the polls. One of the Democratic presidential candidates took a protectionist stand and was quickly eliminated in the primaries. The remaining candidates reread the political mood of the American people and began talking about increased trade. Everybody in the States loves the FTA now. Why shouldn't they? They were handed a deal negotiated in what Canada believed was a highly protec- tionist environment. Canada sacrificed a lot to avoid being shut out of American markets. But protectionism melted away as fast as it came - the so-called omnibus bill was watered down and the FTA, which was supposed to have such a rough ride in Congress, sailed through with near unanimity. Where would we be without polls? Right where we are now in the current municipal election. Everybody wants to pick the winner, but we can only guess. "Who will win?" "Does Emm have chance?" There are no answers - the voters will have to make up their minds without the artificial influence of everybody else's opinion. This election could go any way. Anybody could win. Even Edie Gomille who has challenged three incumbent councillors for a regional seat. In the last municipal election in Brockville a student ran against the long-time incumbent mayor to prevent his accla- mation. To everybody's amazement, including bis own, he won. The former mayor was obviously "ripe" but the conven- tional wisdom was too engrossed in the "incumbency factor" to recognize it. Polls help to avoid such surprises. Everybody's strategy would have been a lot different if the mood of Brockville's voters had been known and, presumably, the outcome would bave been different. But would it bave been better? Brian Mulroney talks about managing change. Well, poils are a means of managing the changing attitudes of voters. Do we want our attitudes managed? With three weeks still to go, this federal election is far from decided. The last election saw the Liberals drop from a clear majority te their worst defeat in history. Could the sanme thing happen again ...to the Conservatives? "What's all this siliness I hear about Canadians losing their identity?!" - - - - - - - - - - FORMER RESIDENCE OF JOHN HAM PERRY (PERRY'S CASTLE), C. 1910 John Ham Perry, youngest son of Whitby's founder Peter Perry, built this home in 1857 in what is now Kinsmen Park where the pool is. Because of financial troubles he abandoned the "castle" in 1877 and it remained vacant for more than 30 years. It was purchased by Thomas Gill Deverell, a builder, in 1911. He demolished the castle and used the materials to build five houses on Byron Street. In Perry's time, the castle was called "Dinsbaugh," an old family name. Whitby Archives photo 10 YEARS AGO from the Wednesday, November 1, 1978 edition of the WHITBY FREE PRESS • Dr. F.A. Cuddy is named Doctor of the Year by the Ontario County Medical Society. • Desmond Newman is being suggested as the next Chairman of Durham Region. • Whitby Minor Baseball Association has honored Neil Murkar and the Whitby Jaycees for their support of minor baseball. • The Town of Whitby is purchasing 15 acres of land where the railway spur line connects the Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Railways. 25 YEARS AGO from the Thursday, October 31, 1963 edition of the WHITBY WEEKLY NEWS No copies of this issue are known to have survived. 100 YEARS AGO from the Friday, November 2, 1888 edition of the WHITBY CHRONICLE • One Whitby resident complains about people burning rags and garbage at 6:30 am when he takes his morning walk. • A young lady says that boys chasing chipmunks at Hamer's Corners (Dundas and Anderson Streets) on Sundays is a desecration of the Sabbath. • Boys made off with the Whitby Gazette editor's bathtub as a Hallowe'en prank. • A meeting will be held at Ray's Hotel on November 6 to start a Whitby Gymnasium Club.