WHITBY FREE PRESS, WEDNESDAY, APRIL 1, 1987, PAGE 7 PAGE SEVEN Political predietions D_1'at better day to write about federal politics than April Fool's Day. ctually, this is intended to be a piece of serious comment - my State of the Nation column. To listen to most of the political pundits this nation has produced, Brian Mulroney has sharnelessly squandered the largest parliamentary majority in history and will go down to certain humiliating defeat in the next election. I doubt it! Remember how, in the last election, John Turner turned an-ab- solute majority in popular support into the worst showing the Liberals have had in history. A few years earlier, a thoroughly discredited and.defeated Pierre Trudeau tendered his resignation as leader of the Liberal party. Weeks later, he seized the oppor- tunity to defeat the government of Joe Clark and went on to form a majority government. Having established how fickle the Canadian public can be, let me stick my neck out and make some predictions about the next federal election. The Conservatives will win but will be well short of a majority, the NDP will form the official opposition, and the Liberals will run third but with somewhat more seats than they have now - that's right, exactly opposite to the way to polls are now. The main reason for this prediction is that Liberal support right now, just as before the last election, is a bubble without any foun- dation. The Liberals remain largely divided on major issues like free trade and their performance in Parliament is dominated by the maverick members of the Rat Pack. Their thrust bas been criticism of the government and in that they have been very suc- cessful, but thus far they have come up with nothing constructive with which to replace it. NDP support may also be a bubble but of a very different type. Their surprising strength in the pols comes from a remarkable in- crease in their support in Quebec. Quebec politics has a volatility like no place else in Canada. Although about 30 per cent of Quebec is dyed-in-the-wool Liberal (ever since Les Anglais hung Louis Riel), the rest is a swing vote. In 1958, John Diefenbaker won-that vote; four years later, Real Caouette (remember him?) won it for the Creditistes; Pierre Trudeau won it back for the Liberals and although they grumbled a lot about him, they had little choice (they thwarted him instead by electing a separatist government provincially). In the last election that swing vote went back to the Conservatives led by an Irish French Canadian from Baie Comeau. That vote is now swinging again - they're not happy with Mulroney and Turner. certainly hasn't capturedtheir imagination. Just as it did in the early sixties, Quebec is turning its support to a third party, the NDP. That support is more emotional than real at this point but if the NDP plays its cards right, they may end up with some substantial Jasting support and several seats in the next elec- tion. The Liberals will probably pick up somewhat on their stalwart 30 per cent and will improve on their dismal showing two years ago. And don't count Mulroney out in Quebec - he is still a native son and he is the only federal leader-who is truly fluent in Quebecois. For the first time ever, Quebec will probably be a hard fought three .way race with no clear winner. Ontario is probably the only province where the Liberals will gain much. The coattails of a popular provincial government (which is bound to get re-elected) will make Canada's largest province one of the few bright spots for the Liberals. As in the past the urban ridings will split between the Liberals and NDP and the rural ridings between the Conservatives and Liberals. The West will be Conservative and NDP as it has been for many years. In fact, the NDP may capture a majority of the Western seats. The NDP has long standing base support in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and B.C. and established a substantial beachhead in Alberta in the last provincial election. Like most of the rest of the country, Western voters are disillusioned with the Mulroney gover- nment and no longer feel the natural affinity they had for the Con- servatives under John Diefenbaker and Joe Clark. The Liberals, in spite of the fact that John Turner now holds a Vancouver riding, did little for the west when they were in office, have little to offer now and will probably elect no more than the few members they now have. The Maritimes is traditionally small "C" conservative and will probably split more or less evenly between the two old parties. The NDP has pockets of strength and has elected from time to time an occasional member - given a national groundswell of supart they could take several more. The big winner in the next election is likely to be the NDP even though it is highly unlikely that they could form a government. Af- ter more than fifty years of third party status and threatened regularly with oblivion, the NDP faces that rare window of oppor- tunity that every third party dreams of. Their support is soft in that it is based largely on disillusionment with the other parties;. however, they bave successfully positioned themselves as a party of rational policies, good leadership and higb principles. If they maintain that image, I believe tbey will form the Opposition after the next election. After that, who knows.• Tbe big losers wiil be the Liberal party. Their current level of support in the poils is incredibly soft and will not bold. Since 1958, when John Diefenbaker swept the West, the Liberals have not really been a national party and they have relied on beavy support , in central Canada to get elected. That support was decimnated in the last election and altbough somne of it wil return, it is as likely to go to the NDP. The wild card is Quebec. This space has been sel aside for well-developed comments on issues of local concern. Articles of preferably 700 - 1000 wor<ls may be submitted by any concerned individuals whether politician or private citizen. Send to the attention of the editor ai Box 206. Whiib. Ont. LI N 5S1. or leave ai the Free Press of- fice ai 1.31 Brock St. N. $'s wasted on Sunday elosing conmittee By GEORGE ASHE MPP DURHAM WEST My colleague Terry O'Connor, Oakville MPP and chairman of a legislative committee studying Sunday shopping, says the Provin- ce could have saved considerable taxpayers' dollars since the results of the committee's hearing will not differ greatly, if at all, from a PC task force study conducted last year. This task force, by the way, was funded by the Conservative party. The all-party committee was set up by Premier David Peterson af- ter the Supreme Court ruled in December that Ontario's Sunday closing law met the terms of Canada's new constitution. The PC task force, aiso chaired by O'Connor and released in April 1986, found Ontarians to be largely opposed to Sunday shopping. O'Connor estimates 60 per cent of the witnesses appearing before the new legislative committee also made submissions to the task force. Many of the written submissions are identical - the title pages have not even been changed. Opposition members of the com- mittee think they are wasting their time and taxpayers' money. Even New Democrat Ed Philip says: "We could have taken the Conser- vative task force report, looked at a few more areas which required research, and come up with amen- dments" to the current legislation. Instead, the legislative commit- tee is hearing largely from the same groups at a projected cost of $150,000 to the taxpayers. T- committee is holding forums throughout the province to hear the - opinions of groups and individuals. How many commissions, studies and legislative committees must there be? I ask you, is this another case of a financially responsible Liberal government? Fennell supports capitalpunishment By SCOTT FENNELL On Thursday, Feb. 12 the deputy prime minister, Don Mazankowski, tabled a motion in the House of Commons on the sub- ject of capital punishment. Since I have been in Parliament I have received many letters and telephone calls from constituents requesting the reinstatement of capital punishment. I wasn't the only Member of Parliament 'ho received representation of this type - many of my colleagues on both sides of the House of Com- mons did as well. Because of the overwhelming concern raised by many Canadians, this government has listened and, as promised, introduced this motion in Parliament. This is a very difficult and emotional topie and should be ap- proached in a very thoughtful and reasonable manner. The gover- nment is giving the public ample time to write to their Members of Parliament and advise them of their views. A special committee of 15 members will be formed and hearings will be held to receive opinions from interested parties. The committee will then be required to present it's report in Parliament, providing recom- mendations on the following: a) which offence or offences should carry the death penalty, and in what circumstances; b) which method or methods should be used to carry out the penalty of death, and in what circumstances; Debate on this motion will follow the presentation of the comnmit- tee report in the House of Commons, and thereafter a free vote will be held allowing Members of Parliament to vote as their con- stituents have indicated. I have given my commitment to the people I represent who, through three surveys, have indicated to me very strongly their desire for the restoration of capital punish- ment. One case in particular, is the major reason for my stance on capital punishment, and that is I had a meeting with a young policeman in 1979, and he exp',. ,ned to me the reasons why he was frightened to go to work. Two .jnths later, I went to his funeral. His fears had come true, as he had died for the same reasons which he had explained to me. I have heard the arguments both for and against capital punish- iment, and as the majority of the people who elected me are ,in ;a-,ur of capital punishment, I will support your views at that -.'i.