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PAGE 8 â€"â€" WATERLOO CHRONICLE, WEDNESOAY, MARCH 19. Economists express optimism for future of Canada‘s economy J. Alex Murray Jonn Grant James Brox Robert Preidt Chronicle Special Optimism for the Canadian economy in 1986 and beyond was a central theme for three speakers at the seventh annual forecasting seminar ‘Wat. Fore. Canada 1986‘ held at the University of Waterloo Monday night. . "Basically sound and excitingly positive," is how the Canadian and world economies were described by Dr. John Grant, director and chief economist, Wood Gundy Inc. "The outlook is largely as John suggested, it‘s one of guarded optimism," agreed James Brox, associate professor of the University of Waterloo economics department. "It‘s about as optimistic as you could hope for." J. Alex Murray, dean of the School of Business and Economics, Wilfrid Laurier University, showed statistics which demonstrate a general positive outlook on the part of Canadian consumers. Grant said Canada has come to grips with the many mistaken assumptions of the late 1970s and early 1980s and that as we leave the debt burden behind it will, ‘"‘continue a surge of confidence that has already been so clear in the private sector." However, he noted Canada‘s growth in coming years will be slow in comparison to rapid growth in countries such as Korea, Taiwan and the Phillipines. It will therefore be foreign demand instead of domestic demand which will contribute the most to Canada‘s economic growth in coming years. These other rapidlyâ€"growing countries will require agricultural and technical knowledge and other exports which Canada can supply. They will also require financing for infrastucture projects such as sewers and telecommunications systems," and we will be in the driver‘s seat." Grant rejected the notion Canada‘s growth will be restrained by declining world oil râ€"‘ces. If anything holds the country back it i be a reluctance by financial institutions to supply the required money for growth here and around the world. The United States economic growth will be limited to about three per cent per year, predicted Grant. Their dollar and interest rates wil fall, "and they‘ll drag ours along with them." _ That will benefit Canada as it makes us more competitive on world markets. Continued growth broadly based across sectors of the economy was predicted by Brox, using information from a computer simulation used to construct the forecast. Lower interest rates, moderate demands for exports generated by accelerating activity in the United States and recent favourable movements in exchange rates will foster this expansion. The unemployment rate for 1986 is expected to be 9.5 per cent while wage increases will remain moderate, about five per cent. This is because labor will be more concerned with jobs than pay increases, said Brox. A 7.6 per cent increase in total labor income is predicted. The consumer price index is expected to increase by 4.7 per cent while corporate profits increases are anticipated to be 7.1 per cent. Brox said a downturn in consumer and government expediture will take place and increases in residential construction will be about 6.7 per cent. _ The external value of the Canadian dollar will remain constant, just below 71 cents U.S. Brox admitted the projections are subject to a high degree of risk. He noted if the United States economy does not rebound as predicted Canada will receive less stimulus through decreased exports. He also noted if the Canadian dollar remains weak it is almost certain a degree of inflationary pressure would build up, possibly causing a decrease in Canadian growth potential. A free trade agreement with the United States is not possible, said Brox. However Grant said there was a possibility the Americans might agree to it. He said a consensus on free trade hinges on the preferences of the next President of the United States. The advantage is on the Canadian side in a free trade deal and the Americans will have to be satisfied they will receive something worthwhile in return for the trade advantages Canada will have. 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