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Waterloo Chronicle (Waterloo, On1868), 8 May 1985, p. 3

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WATERLOO NORTH Chronicle Staft No group was more surprised than the experts by the outcome of last week‘s provincial election. Political scientists from Waterâ€" loo‘s two universities said they were surprised by the Liberal upswing, calling the results something that ‘"couldn‘t be predicted."‘ ‘"When we looked at the numbers, 1 just couldn‘t find more than 42â€"43 seats that the Liberals could have reasonably expected to win," reâ€" marked Wilfrid Laurier University political scientist Steve Brown. "It meant a massive swing in areas where they don‘t traditionally get support.‘"‘ "At the start of the campaign, there was no sign that it would go this far off the tracks," echoed Bob Williams of University of Waterloo‘s political science department. Central to the Tory fall, said Brown, one of five WLU professors studying last September‘s federal election, was the emergence of the separateâ€"school funding issue very late in the campaign. "Miller was uncomfortable with it from the start, and he‘s already looking for euphemisms to shelve it," said He added that Miller‘s campaign organizers also made a grave error in strategy when they decided to isolate the Premier from the media early in the campaign. "I think the press had a role to Fiftyâ€"eight per cent of eligiâ€" bile voters in Waterioo North day‘s provincial election. Voter turnâ€"out higher than 1981 Even experts surprised by final results 1} 1 play in this and I usually don‘t say this. The media found it insulting to be frozen out â€" it made them attentive to things going wrong. During the last week, the reporting was uniformly negative," he said. While they say the upcoming weeks will be difficult ones for all three parties as they attempt to negotiate a balance of power, both political scientists believe a quick return to the polis is unlikely. They maintain that neither the Conservaâ€" tives nor the New Democrats would gain by an early election, and in fact, both could drop seats because of the momentum the Liberals have achieved. ‘‘The two have a common interest in keeping it going â€" that‘s what will make it very interesting. The NDP agenda is light years from the Tory, and Premier Miller has not shown himself to be a compromising man. It‘s going to be a very difficult negotiation,‘"" explained Brown. Both Peterson and NDP Leader Bob Rae could present nonâ€"conâ€" fidence motions when the Legisiaâ€" ture opens with a Throne Speech, expected to occur later this month. The Constitution gives Lieutenantâ€" Governor John Black Aird _ two choices should Miller‘s government fall: he can opt for another election, or he can ask the opposition to take over. Peterson has indicated he would try to govern if an offer is made. More Waterloo North voters cast their ballots in last week‘s call to the polis than in the 1981 election. According to final election figâ€" ures released by the riding‘s returning office, 58 per cent of the Waterloo North electorate voted Thursday, compared to the 1981 turnout of 52.3 per cent. Liberal incumbent Herb Epp took 16,450 of ballots cast, 7,258 more than the 9,192 tallied by Progressive conservative Lynne Woolstencroft. New Democrat Richard Gerson garnered 4,488 votes. Ninetyâ€"five ballots were spoiled, 48 declined. _In ‘81, Epp defeated Tory canâ€" didate Bob Labbett by a margin of 3,237. â€" The Waterloo North voting reâ€" sults reflected provinceâ€"wide trends, which gave David Peterâ€" son‘s Liberal party its best elecâ€" tion showing in almost 50 years. Final standings left Premier Frank Miller with 52 seats in the Legislature, a narrow fourâ€"seat margin over the Liberals‘ 48. Under leader Bob Rae, the New Democrats climbed to 25 seats. However, in voter popularity the Grits emerged the winners, capâ€" turing 38 per cent to the Tory 37 per cent and NDP 24 per cent. _ When the election was called, the Conservatives held 72 seats, Liberals 28 and NDP 22. There were three vacancies. With his decisive win Thursday, Waterlioo North Liberal MPP Herb Epp had reason to be smiling as he and his family, son David, daughter Sarah and wife Jane, arrive to celebrate with party workers at the Knights of Columbus hall. Melodee Martinuk photo Catherine Miehm Chronicle staff What single factor most inâ€" fluenced the way you voted in last Thursday‘s election? Chronicle Staff Area residents had no shortâ€" age of answers and opinions when asked this onâ€"theâ€"street question Monday. Two individuals who will be keenly watching the manoeuvering of the three provincial party leaders over the next few weeks are Waterloo Mayor Marjorie Carroll and local Chamber of Commerce Manager Peter McFadden. _ Wendy Newport of Kitchener believes that hers was a protest However, these two will be observing developâ€" ments from two wideiy varying orientations. For Carroll, a longâ€"time supporter of the Progressive Conservative party, Thursday‘s election was nothing short of a disaster, and she predicts Ontarians will be back at the election booths within 12 months. "I wasn‘t voting for someone, I was voting against something â€" the Conservative majority,‘‘ she Jeff MacGregor of Waterioo was unhappy with the issue of public funding for Catholic ‘‘They haven‘t determined if it‘s even constitutional yet and they wanted to go ahead with it."" he said. â€"While many maintain a minority is the best form of government for the province, Carroll believes it can only lead to "placid inaction.‘" _ "I fear of anything productive coming out of it," she said. ‘"There are a number of major things pending, the Enterprise Centres, changes to the Police Act, the Fire Act, and I can only see these things sitting on a shelf. Plenty of answers for the way people voted MacGregor also felt the proâ€" sed change wasn‘t fair for ‘"‘This will never work unless we have three Differing views on minority role public school teachers. He beâ€" lieves that if they wanted to remain employed, a lot of them would have to apply at the separate school boards. ‘‘They‘d be at the mercy of the people who wouldn‘t even consider their applications preâ€" viously," he said. Frank Miller was the major factor that influenced the vote of Dan Donahue from Camâ€" ‘‘*Miller follows the same footâ€" steps as Bill Davis," he said. "‘The Conservatives treat us like kids. If we want beer in the corner stores, why shouldn‘t we have beer in the corner stores? The NDP and the Liberals Joan Weber of Kitchener felt she had no choice but to vote for the ruling party. ‘*‘The other two parties have WATERLOO CHRONICLE, WEDNESDAY, MAY 8, 1985 â€" PAGE 3 give us a chance to leaders prepared to coâ€"operate fully, and I just can‘t see that happening with these men." _ Looking at the matter more optimistically is McFadden who believes a minority government creates an ‘‘opportunity" from which the province can benefit. "I know I‘m probably looking at it idealistiâ€" cally, but we could see less party politics and more representative politics," he said. "If our representatives vote with their consciences and with those of their constituents, we may see less party emphasis and more of what‘s good for the province." McFadden is encouraged by the fact that the three party leaders appear willing to ‘"negotiâ€" ate," and he maintains they have an obligation to the electorate to make a minority government work. "The taxpayers have given them a message: ‘we won‘t give you a majority, and we have some concerns about your ability to govern.‘ Now it‘s up to the leaders to make it work â€" Ontario can‘t afford another election." Marg Cooper of Waterloo chose to decline her ballot. no idea how to run the provâ€" ince," she said. "They‘ve had no experience. The Tories havg been in power for 40 years. I believe in leaving well enough alone." ‘"‘What kind of choice was there?" she asked. "I think I made my opinion quite clear by declining my ballot. I‘ve never seen such an unimpressive lineâ€" up in my life." _ ‘"The Conservatives have been there too long. They were unwilling to debate any(l_ni_lll_g_." _ William Dean of Waterloo could not point to a single reason for his choice. he said. "A lot was Miller himself. I used to live in Muskoâ€" ka so I‘ve known Frank Miller‘s performance for years. It was a combination of all thesg things."

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