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Population forecasts are an essential tool in planâ€" ning. A population forecast gives the planner a basis for estimating future space needs and facility reâ€" quirements. The population forecast contained in this document is being presented as a best estiâ€" mate and will be used as a guideline to determine space needs. It is recognized that population growth can be very changeable depending on economic conditions and migration patterns as well as the growth of a municipality‘s job opportunities. The population growth of the City will have to be moniâ€" tored very carefully in order to adjust space needs. programs. facilities, etc. as the population grows. The target year for the population forecast, and hence the City‘s plan for development, is 1991. The population forecast for 1991 is 85.000 perâ€" sons. The basis for this forecast is (a) past popuâ€" lation forecasts. (b) an analysis of existing popuâ€" lation trends and (c) use of the population foreâ€" casts of the Regional Municipality of Waterioo. The forecast reflects: . Assumptions form an integral part of any plan and should be stated clearly. Stated assumptions aid in interpreting and evaluating a plan and are useful when the exact native of future needs and desires are unknown. (i) The expected continued high growth rate of the City of Waterlioo as compared to the Region of Waterioo. (ii) _A decline in the high rate of growth of the past two decades ie. from 6% compoundâ€" ing to 4% compounding. (in) Conformity to Regional Municipality of Waâ€" terloo population forecasts. In summary the population forecast calls for a significant growth in Waterloo‘s population but at a slower rate than in the past. The growth will be carefully monitored and planned for in order to avoid disruptions to the social and economic staâ€" bility of the City of Waterioo. The assumptions that this development conâ€" cept is based can be divided into the broader reâ€" gional assumptions and assumptions concerning the City of Waterloo itself. (i) Regional Assumptions (1974â€"1991) (a) That the Regional form of government will continue to exist and provide the regional context for the planning and development activities of the area municipalities within the context of an approved Regional Official Plan. (C) Population Forecast (D) Assumptions Page 14 â€" Waterioo Chronicle, Wednesday, March 3, 1976 (ii) Assumptions Concerning Waterloo 1974â€"1991 (a) Waterloo will form a major part of the main population centre in the Region and t h e City‘s growth rate will be above that of the Region as a whole but within the context of the Regional Official Plan. (b) The population of the City of Waterloo will grow from 45,400 in 1974 to 85,000 by 1991 (b) That the Regional Municipality of Waterâ€" loo will continue to grow due to its strategic economic location as well as its desirable setting for living. The population of the Reâ€" gion will increase from 277,300 in 1974 to between 439,400 to 478,.000 by 1991 and 53 1,200 to 614,600 by 2001 (c) That the majority of the growth in the Reâ€" gion will be channelled into the major urban centres e.g. Kitchener, Waterloo and Camâ€" bridge. (d) That servicing restrictions to growth, e.g. sewage treatment facilities and water supâ€" ply. will be successfully overcome in order to accommodate the Region‘s expected growth (e) That a reasonable balance of employment and housing oppotunities will be maintainâ€" ed throughout the Region of Waterioo. (f) That there will be an integrated urban transâ€" portation system in the Region stressing public transit systems. (g) That there will be a continued stress on preservation of unique or sensitive environâ€" mental features as well as concerted atâ€" tempt to preserve viable farmland once urâ€" ban needs are met. (c) Much of the expected population growth of the City of Waterloo will be accommodatâ€" ed in areas taken into the City in 1973 when ‘"Goals are idealized ends towards which planned action is directed. Objectives, as distinguished from goals, are achievable, feasible, measureable ends." Based on the preceding assumptions and Council considerations the following goals and obâ€" jectives are proposed for a growing Waterloo: (1) Residential Goal It shall be the residential goal of the Waterloo Official Plan to provide for an ample supply of livâ€" ing accommodation in terms of type and location for the present and future inhabitants of the City of Waterloo. (E) Goals and Objectives (2) Residential Objectives It shall be the commercial goal of this Plan to ensure that there is a well balanced and varied comâ€" mercial economy to serve the needs of the residents of the City of Waterloo and the travelling public by the provision of adequate commercial land and land use policies. (3) Commercial Goal (4) Commercial Objectives (a) To establish a viable and reasonable hierachy of shopping facilities to serve the needs of the public. (a) To provide staged residential development throughout the City of Waterloo, dependent upon availability of municipal services and transpartation accessibility and in accorâ€" dance with phasing satisfactory to the City of Waterloo. (b) To discourage premature residential developâ€" ment that would create an adverse econâ€" omic burden for the City of Waterloo. (c) To provide for appropriate buffers to separate residential areas from commercial and inâ€" dustrial sites and railway lines. (d) To provide for a balanced range of housing accommodation to meet a variety of demand in ownership and rental categories in terms of type., size and location. (e) To establish Residential Districts as a frameâ€" work within which neighbourhood residenâ€" tial uses may be planned. (f) To participate in providing subsidized housâ€" ing as the need is identified in local and reâ€" gional housing studies. (g) To set aside enough land for residential purâ€" poses to meet and exceed the expected deâ€" mand in the planning period. (d) Growth will take place. to varying degrees. to the north, west and east and be based on the City‘s phasing policies. (e) There will be adequate water supply and sewage treatment facilities to accommodate growth in the City. (f) in the process of growth and development. some viable farmland will be taken for deâ€" velopment purposes. . (g) The Universities in Waterloo will see a more limited growth as opposed to the tremenâ€" dous expansion that took place in the 1960‘s. (h) There will be a diversity of housing and emâ€" ployment opportunities in the City of Waâ€" terloo. (i) The majority of industrial growth will take place on the northern fringe of the presently built up area of the City of Waterloo. in areas designated for industrial development. (j) Industrial land usage will be on a more inâ€" tense basis than in previous times. (k) Waterioo‘s Central Business District will continue to play a major role in the retail. office and institutional fabric of the comâ€" munity and will be the focus of commercial activity in the City. (m) Residential development in the City of Waâ€" terloo will continue on the basis of resiâ€" dential districts. (n) The areas of Waterloo not required for urban purposes will remain in predominantly agriâ€" cultural and open space uses. (b) To maintain and improve the Downtown reâ€" the Regional Municipality of Waterioo was created. It shall be the industrial goal of the Official Plan to develop the industrial econmomy of the City of Waterloo in a manner so as to provide an adequate level of industrial employment for City residents and so as to maintain an adequate industrial tax base. (d) ‘To encourage neighbourhood commercial establishments to develop in harmony with their surroundings. in proportion to and in conjunction with residential development. as the market demands mature. (p) To provide adequate space for quasiâ€"comâ€" mercial uses which are highway oriented and require sizeable parcels of land b u t which do not compete on a functional basis with the Central Business District or shopâ€" ping centres. (f) To expand existing and designated shopping centres, should the market demand indicate a need. rather than creating new major shopâ€" ping areas within the City of Waterloo. (5) Industrial Goal It shall be the economic goal of this Plan to proâ€" vide development guidelines and policies for the City of Waterloo consistent with its economic poâ€" tential by providing adequate and suitably located areas for various economic activities and by evolvâ€" ing the best economic function for the area. (8) Economic Objectives {a) To expand the commercial industrial assessâ€" ment base appropriately to assure a strong tax base for the City of Waterioo. (b) To foster the continued development of Waterloo as an employment, trade. social and institutional centre. (6) Industrial Objectives (7) Economic Goal It shall be the municipal services goal of this Plan to provide adequate and efficient systems of water supply, sanitary sewers, storm drainage and waste disposal to all areas of development in the City of Waterloo in accordance with a stagâ€" ing program as established within the Plan. (10) Municipal Services Objective (c) To undertake essential and desirable capital works based on a 5 year short term program. (9) Municipal Services Goal tail commercial area as well as to allow comâ€" _ _mercial expansion in other parts of the City of Waterioo, having careful regard for good site development standards. (c) To establish a plan for the improvement of _ Downtown Waterloo based on maintaining the downtown commercial area as the City‘s major focus of major commercial, business and institutional uses. (b) To encourage manufacturing industries to locate in designated industrial parks. (c) To encourage industries which are low water consumers and low sewage effluent proâ€" ducers to locate in Waterloo. (a) To provide adequate industrial land to meet the economic need and to maintain satisâ€" factory industrial/non industrial assessment ratios. (d) To encourage a more intense use of indusâ€" trial sites in order to minimize industrial‘land consumption. (e) Recognize that existing Central City indusâ€" trial sites will remain viable operations for the period of the plan but that consideration will be given for redevelopment to other uses should the situation arise. (a) To ensure that no development takes place within the Urban Development Area of Wa:â€" terloo. without full municipal services ie municipal sanitary sewer, municipal water, storm drainage and waste disposal. (b) To ensure, in coâ€"operation with the Regional Municipality of Waterloo,. that adequate supplies of water exist for development in the City of Waterloo. (c) To discourage premature development when extension of existing municipal services can readily accommodate urban expansion. thereby averting an adverse economic burâ€" den on the City of Waterloo.